Elections/Campaigns

80% - Drop in Economy coverage from July 2011 to January 2012

The weakening economy was the biggest story in the media in 2011, accounting for one-fifth of the entire newshole, a jump from the year before. The race for the presidency accounted for about half that much, 9% (go to the 2011 interactive).

Towards the end of 2011 and into 2012, attention to those two issues crossed.

The campaign overtook the economy in November (economy coverage accounted for 18% and campaign accounted for 20%), when allegations about sexual harassment by Herman Cain became a major subject. Coverage of the campaign has only gained steam since. Thus far in 2012, the campaign has accounted for nearly half, 46%, of the newshole according to PEJ’s News Coverage Index.

Much of that coverage has come in place of attention that was being paid to the economy.

From July 2011 to January 2012, the level of attention paid to the state of the economy has dropped by 80%. And that drop mirrors the increase in political coverage.

While some of the election coverage has focused on candidates’ plans for the economy, that coverage is different, and as a component of all political coverage it doesn’t come close to the decline in economic reporting.

Tricia Sartor of PEJ

20% - Amount of Coverage of the 2012 Presidential Campaign since October 1 

Thus far in 2011, (from January 1 through December 11), the presidential campaign, defined by the Republican nomination battle, has accounted for 9% of the overall newshole. That is slightly less than the amount of coverage (10%) devoted to the presidential campaign for the same period four years earlier, when about twice as many candidates were running and the nominations in both parties were up for grabs.

But those overall numbers tell only part of the story. After a sluggish start to campaign coverage early in 2011, attention to the campaign in the past quarter has spiked dramatically and outstripped coverage of the 2008 campaign for the same period four years ago.

The past few months, starting on October 1, have seen a number of dramatic developments in the Republican race including problems for former frontrunner Rick Perry's campaign, the stunning rise and fall of Herman Cain and the dramatic resurgence of Newt Gingrich to the top of the polls. From October 1-December, 11, the campaign accounted for 20% of the overall newshole, edging out the U.S. economy as the No. 1 story.

In that same time frame in 2007, the presidential contest filled 16% of the newshole.   

Coverage of the campaign during the middle of 2011-from April 1 through September 30-registered at 8% of the newshole, which was just slightly behind the coverage in that same period four years ago, which was 9%.

Coverage in 2011 really spiked in June of this year (12% that month) as almost all the Republican hopefuls entered the race, but then fell significantly in July (3% that month) as the media focused on the Congressional battle over the debt crisis. By August, however, attention had risen to 9% and has climbed steadily since.

The biggest difference in the amount of coverage devoted to the 2012 and 2008 campaigns occurred early in the year. In the first quarter of 2011 (January 1 through March 31), coverage of the presidential race (1% of the newshole) was far behind where it was (7%) for the corresponding period four years ago.  In early 2007, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama entered the 2008 campaign, raising the possibility of the nation electing its first female or African-American president, which helped drive coverage. In 2011, the main contenders were slower to announce their candidacies.

Tricia Sartor of PEJ

95% - Drop in news coverage of Sarah Palin from May to December 2011

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who has repeatedly proven her ability to generate media attention over the past few years, has virtually disappeared from the headlines since her October 5 announcement that she would not seek the presidency in 2012.

In the early stages of the 2012 campaign—from May through early October—Palin ranked No. 4 in the competition for news coverage among the Republican presidential hopefuls even though she had not entered the race and many observers largely discounted the possibility. In that period, only Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry were the subject of more news coverage.

A good chunk of that campaign-related coverage came in May and June, when Palin was the No. 2 and No. 3 Republican newsmaker respectively, registering as a dominant figure in 12% of the campaign stories in each month. (To be a dominant newsmaker, someone must be featured in at least 50% of a story.

Her coverage dropped in July (a dominant newsmaker in 3% of the stories), August (5%), and September (3%), but she was still capable of generating headlines, most particularly when she would hint about running for the White House.  But in the two months since Palin announced she would not seek the presidency, coverage of her has almost vanished. In both October and November, she was a dominant newsmaker in only 1% of the campaign stories.

Ever since John McCain selected Palin as his surprise running mate in August 2008, the former Alaska governor has been a familiar figure in the media, a seemingly irresistible story for political journalists and commentators. In both 2008 and 2009, she finished as the fifth-leading newsmaker. And she registered as the No. 2 newsmaker, behind President Obama, in 2010, when she confirmed that she was considering a run for president in 2012.

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24% - Percentage of Ron Paul’s campaign coverage in 2011 compared to Donald Trump's

In the days after his runner-up finish to Michele Bachmann in Iowa’s August 13 GOP straw poll, Texas Congressman Ron Paul complained about a lack of media coverage, accusing the press of being “frightened by me challenging the status quo and the establishment."

As pundits debate whether Paul is getting the attention he deserves, a PEJ analysis of campaign coverage this year indicates he is the 10th leading election newsmaker— trailing far behind non-candidates Donald Trump and Sarah Palin and as well as floundering Republican hopeful Newt Gingrich.

From January 1-August 14, Paul has been a dominant newsmaker in only 27 campaign stories. (To be considered a dominant newsmaker, someone must be featured in at least 50% of a story.) That is less than one-quarter of the media attention generated by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (120 stories), who is the top newsmaker among Republican candidates. And he has received 25% as much coverage as Bachmann, the Minnesota Congresswoman (108 stories).

Paul’s coverage also lags far behind Trump (94 stories), who dallied with a run before opting out in mid-May and Palin (85 stories), who has given no indication to date that she will enter the race. In addition, Paul trails longshot candidate and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman (44 stories) and Texas Governor, Rick Perry (33 stories) who only announced his candidacy on August 13.

The only significant GOP candidates that Paul is besting are former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum (21 stories) and businessman Herman Cain (11 stories).

The top campaign newsmaker overall is incumbent President Barack Obama, at 221 stories.

In a further attempt to gauge the post-straw poll attention to Paul’s campaign, PEJ also used the Snapstream server’s closed captioning capability to assess the candidates’ television coverage in the first few days after that balloting.

The sample included the three network Sunday morning panel shows on August 14, the morning and evening network news programs on August 15 and four hours of prime-time cable and one hour of daytime from each of the three major cable news networks on August 15.

According to that analysis, Paul was mentioned just 29 times. By comparison, Perry was mentioned 371 times, Bachmann was mentioned 274 times, and Romney was mentioned 183 times.

Tricia Sartor of PEJ

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About the News Coverage Index

2010 Year in the News Interactive

No. 2 - Rank of Christine O’Donnell among 2010 election newsmakers

With the U.S. economy and the role of government emerging as crucial issues in the midterm elections, it’s not surprising that President Obama has been the top newsmaker in the 2010 election coverage to date. According to the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism, Obama and his administration led in 343 election stories from January 1-October 31, 2010. (To be a lead newsmaker, someone must be featured in at least 50% of a story.)

But the No. 2 campaign newsmaker rose from obscurity to become a household name in a matter of weeks, if not days. Christine O’Donnell, the tea party-backed candidate who won a stunning victory in Delaware’s GOP senate primary, dominated 160 election stories examined by PEJ. O’Donnell’s upset over Congressman Mike Castle—as well as her penchant for controversial statements (some of them well in the past) about everything from dabbling in witchcraft to the separation of church and state—has made her a media favorite.

Indeed, four of the 10 top election newsmakers are representatives of the tea party movement, which has emerged as a key element in the election narrative.  Kentucky GOP senate candidate Rand Paul ranked 4th (at 88 stories) and Nevada Republican Sharron Angle, who has mounted a very stiff challenge to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, ranked 6th (at 80 stories). (Reid is the No. 7 newsmaker, showing up prominently in 74 election stories). And Carl Paladino, the tea party’s GOP candidate for New York governor, is tied for ninth at 52 stories.

Two of the other top headline generators are involved in one of the more high profile races in the country—the hotly contested gubernatorial contest in California. Meg Whitman, the Republican candidate who has spent well over $100 million of her own money and who was ensnared in a controversy over an undocumented worker in her home, is the No. 3 newsmaker (90 stories.) Her opponent—veteran politician and former presidential candidate Jerry Brown who made news when someone attached to his campaign referred to Whitman in crude terms—finished in the tenth spot (49 stories.)

Pennsylvania’s Joe Sestak, who defeated party-switching incumbent Arlen Specter in the Democratic senate primary and is in a tough fight against Republican Pat Toomey, is the No. 5 newsmaker, at 85 stories.

*Includes Obama and Obama Administration as a newsmaker

No. 4 - Rank of the 2010 elections among top stories this year

With the 2010 midterm elections approaching, attention to the subject has been heating up.  White House press secretary Robert Gibbs’ suggestion that Democrats could lose the House in November—one that triggered anger among some Democrats—became a key narrative in last week’s 2010 coverage. Driven by this storyline, the 2010 midterm elections filled 6.4% of the newshole from July 12-18, making it the No. 3 topic in the news agenda.

But last week’s coverage was not an isolated phenomenon. Attention to the midterm election season has been on a steady climb this year to the point that it now ranks as the No. 4 story of the year—behind only the economy, the Gulf oil spill and the health care debate.

In 2009, coverage of the subject was minimal, remaining below 1.0% of the newshole for most of the year. In the first three months of 2010, however, attention to the campaign filled 2.9% of the newshole. In the second quarter, that jumped to 6.2%. And so far in July, coverage has grown further—to 7.1%.

A PEJ examination of campaign coverage indicates that it began to pick up—due in significant measure to some major primary races—after the late March passage of health care legislation. At that point, talk show hosts and pundits, among others, seemed to turn some of their attention from health care to the 2010 election.

And some weeks stood out for their particularly high level of attention to the election cycle. Primary victories by tea party favorite Rand Paul in Kentucky’s Republican Senate race and Joe Sestak over converted Democrat Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania’s Senate primary helped fill 17.9% of the newshole the week of May 17-23.

The following week (May 24-30), coverage filled 10.0% of the newshole. It was driven by Paul’s controversial statement that government should not force businesses to adhere to civil rights laws and Sestak’s assertion that he was offered a position in the Obama Administration if he agreed not to run against Specter. And the week of June 7-13, campaign coverage filled 12.9% of the newshole when Blanche Lincoln won a close Democratic primary in Arkansas and Alvin Green—a virtually unknown candidate who did not run a formal campaign—became the surprise Democratic Senate nominee in South Carolina.

Another week of significant coverage (7.5%) occurred from July 5-11, which included news about hotly contested races in California and Ohio and the release of a Gallup poll showing a drop in President Obama’s support among independents.

Tricia Sartor of PEJ

*July 1-18, 2010

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About the News Coverage Index

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