October 25, 2012
With the election less than two weeks away, Americans are following the presidential campaign more closely on nearly every news platform than they were earlier in the year, including print newspapers. The biggest gains have come on the internet-both to the websites of traditional news sources and those native to the web.
Social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are growing especially rapidly as a source of political news. The number of Americans who say they regularly go to these destinations to learn about the campaign has doubled since January. Even with that jump, however, these leading social media platforms are still turned to by a relatively limited number of Americans, about 17% in all, when those who mentioned at least one of those platforms are combined.
When asked which sources of campaign news had been "most useful," nearly half of Americans named television in one of its various forms. Cable news was first on that list, named as the most useful source by 24%; a little more than a quarter volunteered various forms of the internet, while a third as many named local or national newspapers (8%) or radio (6%).
These are among the findings of a new survey of Americans about how they are learning about the election conducted October 18-21 among 1,005 adults nationwide by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.
The numbers portray a diverse landscape in which no platform dominates as the place for politics, and the vast majority of Americans say they regularly rely on multiple platforms to get political information. Just 6% said they turn regularly to just one platform.
Cable news channels continue to have the furthest reach, but a number of other destinations are close. Currently, 41% of Americans say they regularly learn about the candidates or the campaign from cable news networks, up five percentage points from 36% during the primaries.
But local TV news is almost as popular as a means for learning about the campaign; 38% of Americans regularly use it to learn about the candidates and the election, up six points since the primaries.
That is now nearly matched by the internet, which has seen an increase of 11 points in the number of Americans who say they regularly turn to it for campaign news since the year began. Fully 36% of Americans say they regularly get election news there, up from 25% in January.
Yet nearly as many-31% of Americans-regularly get information about the candidates and the campaign from national evening network newscasts; it was 26% during the primaries.
Local and national newspapers have also seen their audiences grow. Altogether, 30% say they regularly read one of these two types of newspapers for campaign news; 23% regularly turn to their local daily newspapers, up from 20% in January; 13% turn to national newspapers, up from 8% in January.
The Pew Research Center traditionally asks Americans about their sources of campaign news at the beginning of each presidential election. Back in January, those surveys found that with contested primaries in just one party, the long-term declines seen in several traditional sources such as newspapers, local TV and network news had steepened.
The new survey was conducted to examine media consumption behavior about the campaign during the general election phase, both to benchmark that time period for the first time, and to see whether there were patterns in a changing media landscape.
Beyond traditional news sources and digital destinations, other forms of media have also established a role in the political information ecosystem, though some of these so-called alternative forms may have stabilized or even shrunk in popularity.
About one-in-ten Americans, 12%, regularly get news from comedy programs such as The Daily Show, Saturday Night Live or The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. Up from 9% in January, it is now on par with public radio and national newspapers.
Cable talk programs also play a sizable part in the political dialogue. Fully 18% said they regularly got political information there, up from 15% in January. But there is also evidence that role of cable talk might be smaller than it was some years ago. In January 2004, for instance, a combined total of 44% of Americans said they regularly or sometimes watched the shows for campaign information. In January, that number was 34%. Now it is 35%. Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who said they never watch cable talk shows has risen from 38% in 2004 to 47% today. This possible downward trend in the broad audience for cable talk, moreover, stands in contrast to the trend for cable news in general, which has been among the most stable in audience reach of the older news platforms.
The number of Americans who say they turn to radio talk for campaign information also changed little from January and has declined from several years ago. In all, 16% said they regularly turn to figures such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity on the radio for election information, unchanged since the primaries. Another 19% do so sometimes, also unchanged from January. But in January 2004, 46% said they regularly or sometimes got campaign information from talk radio. The total now comes to 35%.
Where People Go Online for Election News
The survey then probed more deeply into where on the internet people go for campaign news on a regular basis. More said they turn to the websites or apps of traditional news organizations than to online-only sites or apps (28% of Americans who are online versus 19%).
And while social media, which draws on many sources for the information, remains relatively small, it is growing rapidly as a means for getting political news. Currently, 12% of those online say they regularly use Facebook to get campaign news, more than double the 6% who said so in January. That number represents 21% of those who use social networks.
YouTube is a regular source for campaign news for 7% of Americans, also more than double the 3% who said so in January, when the campaign involved primaries just in the GOP.
Twitter has also doubled to 4%, but remains the smallest of the three main social media formats. But when those on Twitter are asked about whether they use the platform for campaign news, the numbers become much larger. Fully 25% of those on Twitter use it regularly for campaign news. In January, 17% of those on Twitter used it regularly for political information.
Which Sources Are Most Useful
With such a complex network of platforms and sources to choose from, the nuance of how and when people seek out different places for information about the election becomes much more difficult to understand. The concept of a primary source of news-a gatekeeper that provides most of what a voter might know-seems obsolete.
To get at some sense of value, the survey asked people to name the source, out of those they turned to regularly, which had been "most helpful" to them overall.
The answers showed the continuing power of television in general to let people see events, but also the increasing influence of convenience, breadth and depth of the web.
In all, 49% volunteered some form of television as their most helpful source in providing campaign news, combining local, network and cable together. Cable led the way among these, with fully 26% of Americans naming cable news in general (24%) or cable talk shows in particular (2%). The other two major television sources-network nightly newscasts and local TV news-were both mentioned as most helpful by 11%.
About half as many as named a television source mentioned an internet one (28%). That puts the internet in a tie with cable news as the most helpful medium for campaign news.
Most of these people volunteered the internet in general as the medium they consider most helpful, but some specified particular destinations; 4% mentioned Facebook, 3% the websites of traditional news organizations, 2% web-only sources, and 1% YouTube videos or Twitter.
Newspapers were named by just 8% of Americans as the most helpful source for learning about the candidates and the election (5% said local papers and 3% said national ones).
And 4% mentioned public radio as the most helpful source for learning about the campaign.
Comedy programs were tied with Twitter and YouTube at 1%.
About the Survey
The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted October 18-21, 2012, among a national sample of 1,005 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (601 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 404 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 224 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see: http://people-press.org/methodology/.
The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status, based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:
Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
See the topline.
© Pew Research Center, 2012
September 28, 2012
As the candidates for president reintroduced themselves at their conventions and began the last phase of the campaign, they received markedly different treatment in social media than in the mainstream press, a new study finds.
The conversation on Twitter, blogs and Facebook about Mitt Romney and Barack Obama during this key period changed little with events-even during the two candidates' own nominating conventions. The conversation in all of these platforms was also consistently negative, according to the study by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.
In the mainstream media, by contrast, both Romney and Obama received a version of the traditional convention bounce, with coverage about them becoming more positive during the week of their party's nationally televised gathering.
The media portrait of this key month in the campaign is consistent with what PEJ has seen in social media throughout the campaign. Whether it would prove true in other campaigns cannot be known. But the differences raise a question about whether social media may make what Americans hear about politics more negative and may make it harder for political actors, particularly those trailing in the polls, to alter the media narrative.
On Twitter, for instance, the percentage of negative discourse about Romney was identical during the two convention weeks-and made up the majority of assertions. The level of positive discourse, meanwhile, varied by just two points between the two weeks. On Facebook, the numbers barely budged. There was a more noticeable shift in tone during the conventions, though modest, on blogs.
During his convention, Obama received a modest improvement in the tone of the conversation about him on Twitter, and somewhat less on Facebook and blogs, but the tone in all three venues remained consistently negative.
In the mainstream press, by contrast, positive stories about Romney during his convention outnumbered negative ones by about two-to-one. Obama's positive stories outnumbered his negative ones, by a somewhat smaller margin, during the Democratic convention.
The study also finds that generally more of the discourse has been focused on Obama rather than on Romney. The President has been the subject of more Twitter traffic, more YouTube viewings, more blog and Facebook conversation and even more mainstream news coverage. The only time that changed noticeably-and was likely unwanted-was on Twitter the week that a video surfaced in which Romney derided the 47% of Americans who do not pay income tax.
These are among the results of one-month study of the tone of discourse across 52 mainstream media outlets, the full range of conversation on Twitter, a large sampling on Facebook and in blogs, as well as a measure of traffic on YouTube.
The study examined the tone and volume of news coverage and social media conversation from August 27 to September 23 across a wide range of media platforms. Human researchers studied 1,084 stories in 52 mainstream media outlets-from television, print, radio and news websites. And a combination of human coding combined with computer software from the company Crimson Hexagon analyzed more than 18 million posts on Twitter, 323,000 on Facebook, and 690,000 on blogs. In addition, researchers examined the traffic to key videos of the candidates on YouTube during the same period.
Twitter
The week of the GOP convention, from August 27-September 2, fully 59% of the Twitter assertions about Romney were negative while 17% were positive. The following week, when the Democrats held their convention, Romney's numbers were virtually the same, again 59% negative and 19% positive.
These figures for Twitter reinforce what PEJ has seen throughout the campaign season about this growing social media platform. For every single one of the 16 weeks studied since June 4, the tone of the conversation about Romney has been negative-by a differential of at least 34 points.
The settled tone of that dialogue is reflected in the fact that during the week of September 17-23, when the damaging 47% video surfaced, the numbers were nearly the same as the week of Romney's convention, when Republicans were putting out their most positive messages about the candidate. The week of the video, 62% of the Twitter conversation about Romney was negative, and 14% positive.
Obama did enjoy some bounce on Twitter from his convention, but that proved ephemeral. The week of the Democratic convention, from September 3-9, Obama could boast that the gap between positive assertions about him (31%) and negative assertions (42%) narrowed to 11 points, about half of what it had been the week before when he was being rhetorically pummeled at the GOP convention.
Since then the Twitter conversation about Obama has returned to levels typical of what PEJ has seen throughout the general election period, with negative assertions exceeding positive ones about the president by about 20 points.
And with the exception of the week of the Democratic convention, the tone of Twitter conversation about Obama has been more negative than positive each week since June by a differential of at least 19 points.
Blogs
The conversation about the candidates on blogs has also been highly negative, and here it is distinguished by how evenly split it was during the conventions. At the time of the GOP gathering, negative assertions about Romney in the blogs studied outstripped positive ones by 22 points (41% to 19%). That same week, the conversation about Obama tilted to the negative by 30 points (45% negative and 15% positive).
The week of the Democratic convention, the conversation was again harshly negative for both, with a similar easing toward the host party. The conversation about Obama was negative by 24 points (43% to 19%). And the conversation about Romney was negative by 30 points, (46% negative assertions to 16% positive).
Since then, the conversation among bloggers has become worse for Romney. The week after the Democratic convention, the negative to positive gap for Romney grew to 34 points (48% negative and 14% positive). The following week, it increased further, to 41 points (54% negative and 13% positive).
In the case of Obama, the conversation in the blogosphere has remained fairly static since the Democratic convention.
Facebook
Of the three main social media venues in which the tone of conversation can be assessed by PEJ, the treatment of the candidates has been the most unchanging on Facebook. Here the sample is more limited. All that can be analyzed is a random sampling of Facebook posts that users are willing to have seen publicly. Presumably, that is a conversation that is designed to persuade but may not reflect the full range of what people say to just their "friends" on Facebook.
What was in this space during the month was overwhelmingly negative and barely budged. In each of the four weeks, negative assertions about Romney exceeded positive ones by 43 points-exactly.
There was a little more variation for Obama and a mildly positive trend. During the Republican convention, negative assertions about the president outstripped positive ones by 49 points. During the Democratic convention, that dropped just slightly, to a 42 point negative differential. The last week studied, September 17-23, that had narrowed to 33 points-21% percent positive and 54% negative.
The Volume of Attention on Social Media
Another way of gauging the social media response to the candidates during the convention period is to look at volume, or how much attention was focused on each candidate. Here, there is a clearer distinction between Obama and Romney. For most of the month, most of the attention, whether measured in conversation or in views on YouTube, was focused on the president and Democrats.
On Twitter, Obama was the focus of more than twice as many assertions during the week of the Democratic convention than Romney was during the Republican convention (4.92 million assertions versus 1.98 million). That pattern, more attention to Obama, has held throughout the general election period and all of 2012, even during the period of the GOP primaries.
The two exceptions came just recently. The week of the GOP convention, Romney was the subject of slightly more assertions on Twitter than Obama - 1,975,872 to 1,958,298. The only occasion when Romney was in a significantly larger number was the week of September 17-23 when the 47% video surfaced. That week, there were 2.3 million Twitter assertions about the GOP nominee versus 1.9 million about Obama.
This generally higher focus on Obama is also reflected in the volume on Facebook. During Romney's convention week, for instance, there was more conversation about Obama than Romney by about 18%. And during Obama's convention week, the conversation about the president outstripped that of Romney by about 3-to-1, 166,724 assertions compared to 51,762.
The same basic volume pattern prevailed on blogs. During the GOP convention week, the Obama conversation was more than 17% greater than for Romney. During the Democratic convention week, it was twice as big.
And unlike Twitter, even the emergence of the now famous 47% video did not move the focus of the conversation from Obama toward Romney on blogs and Facebook.
The higher interest in Obama and the Democrats in social media is also reflected in the viewership of videos since the two conventions. For instance, through September 21, 2012, Obama's acceptance speech on various YouTube channels has been viewed nearly five times as often as Romney's (4.9 million to 1.1 million). And contrary to what some observers might speculate, Obama's speech has also been viewed more than former President Bill Clinton's address to the nation, though that speech, in various forms, has been viewed on YouTube nearly four times as often as Romney (3.9 million times to Romney's 1.1 million). The same pattern can be seen in the numbers as they relate to the wives of the candidates. Michelle Obama's speech has been viewed 3.2 million times, about five times as often as the one delivered by Ann Romney (563,000).
The only major Republican figure to generate more attention than his Democratic counterpart on YouTube was vice-presidential nominee Paul Ryan, whose speech has attracted 457,000 views compared with 173,000 for Vice President Joseph Biden, whose speech was not delivered in prime time.
The only other speaker at the Republican convention to generate major YouTube attention was one that Romney might like to forget. That was actor and director Clint Eastwood's "empty chair" speech. Since Eastwood's appearance, that video has been viewed 3.2 million times.
The only GOP video since the convention to be viewed more often than the Eastwood clip was footage of Romney's 47% remarks to fundraisers, which as of September 24, had been viewed 3.4 million times. That is still less, however, than the president's acceptance speech or Clinton's remarks.
Mainstream Media
The one media platform where the tone of the discourse changed markedly during the last month, and where a candidate managed to generate more positive than negative treatment, however briefly, was in the mainstream news media.
Here, in a sample that also includes cable and talk radio hosts, Romney fared somewhat better during his convention week than Obama during his.
The week of the GOP convention, 36% of the stories about Romney studied in the mainstream media outlets was positive compared with 15% negative-a margin of 21 points. The week of the Democratic gathering, 32% of the stories about Obama were positive compared with 22% negative-a gap of 10 points.
Since then, Obama's coverage has turned somewhat negative, but is still far better than Romney's. In the week following the conclusion of the conventions, September 10-16, 20% of the stories about Obama have been positive compared to 24% negative.
For Romney, the majority of stories (53%) that week were negative. Strikingly, of the 130 stories about Romney examined from the mainstream press that week, researchers found none in which positive assertions about Romney outnumbered negative ones by a ratio of 3-2, the threshold used to determine a story as having a clear tone. But 47% of the stories that week were mixed in tone, meaning that the assertions about Romney were fairly evenly divided.
The mainstream press has also given more attention to Obama during this period, even with the negative publicity associated with Romney's video. From August 27 to September 16, Obama was a bigger newsmaker than Romney, the focus of 667 stories compared with 477 for his rival. [1] And while the number of stories about Romney exceeded those about Obama by more than 30% during the Republican convention, Obama was the focus on more than twice as many stories as Romney during the Democratic convention.
Footnote
[1] Unlike the social media sample, which included the four weeks from August 27-September 23, the mainstream media sample includes three weeks, from August 27-September 16. This reflects the fact that the human coding of mainstream media outlets takes more time than the computer algorithmic coding of social media.
May 7, 2012
In Gingrich's Final Week, No Respite from Negative Coverage
April 30 - May 6, 2012 - Newt Gingrich's official exit from the presidential race on May 2 was greeted with the kind of coverage he experienced throughout the 2012 primary season-a sharply negative narrative.
From April 30-May 6, negative coverage of the former House Speaker (38%) outweighed the positive (18%) by 20 percentage points, according to the Campaign 2012 in the Media, a weekly tracking of the tone and volume of coverage of the candidates by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism. That marked the sixth consecutive week when Gingrich's negative coverage exceeded positive by more than 10 points-and in many of those weeks, the margin was considerably higher.
The same week, the presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney enjoyed more positive (33%) than negative coverage (25%). After largely mixed coverage in the first three weeks in April-when the narrative switched from the Republican primary battle to a general election focus-Romney has now enjoyed two consecutive weeks when his tone was solidly more positive than negative. That is due in part to GOP officials and former rivals coalescing around his candidacy. Last week, he garnered the endorsements of Michele Bachmann and the departing Gingrich.
President Obama, who formally initiated his re-election campaign last week, saw the tone of his coverage improve somewhat, although it still remains more negative than positive. From April 30-May 6, 22% of Obama's coverage was positive compared with 34% negative. That 12-point differential is the smallest in seven weeks and comes one week after Obama's negative coverage exceeded positive by 33 points.
Some of the improvement in the president's coverage came from the generally positive reaction to his secret trip to Afghanistan where he signed an agreement with President Hamid Karzai and committed to removing U.S. combat forces from that country by 2014.
PEJ's analysis of the candidates' coverage incorporates software from the firm Crimson Hexagon to use a combination of traditional human content analysis and computer monitoring of the tone of press coverage. PEJ also uses human coding to analyze the competition for press attention, or how much coverage the candidates are generating.
The research on the tone in news coverage is not a study of media fairness or bias. Rather, it offers a comprehensive, quantitative analysis of whether the messages Americans receive about a candidate in the news media are positive, negative or neutral. PEJ's research examines and quantifies all the assertions about a candidate in news coverage. When a candidate is widely criticized by rivals, for instance, Americans are hearing negative statements about that candidate. When a candidate begins to surge in the polls, and his or her candidacy begins to look more viable, Americans are receiving positive statements about that candidate.
For Newt Gingrich, the negative statements about his campaign overwhelmed the positive ones for almost all of 2012.
In the 18 weeks of 2012 campaign coverage studied by PEJ, Gingrich enjoyed only one week in which his positive coverage significantly outstripped his negative coverage. That was when he defeated Romney in the South Carolina primary on January 21. However, he was soundly beaten by Romney 10 days later in Florida, and his coverage turned largely and permanently negative thereafter. Indeed, his only other victory came in his home state of Georgia on March 6, and he was never able to change the tone of the narrative.
The press largely stopped covering the cash-strapped Gingrich campaign by April. In each of the five final weeks of his campaign, he was a significant presence in less than 10% of the campaign stories. (To register as a significant figure, someone must be featured in at least 25% of the story.) In the final week of his campaign, Gingrich generated only about one-sixth as much coverage (6%) as Romney (39%).
Getting press attention has been a chronic problem for Romney's one Republican challenger still left standing-Ron Paul. Last week, Paul was a significant figure in 1% of the campaign stories. The last time he registered in as many as 5% of the weekly campaign stories was two months ago, in early March.
The lack of attention to Paul may minimize the impact of whether the messages the public hear about him are negative or positive. Nevertheless, he has recently seen a significant uptick in positive messages. Last week, Paul enjoyed his most positive coverage (52%) of 2012 compared with only 21% negative. That flattering coverage was spurred by reports revealing that in a number of states, his campaign has been successful in plucking substantial numbers of delegates who will attend the nominating convention.
Those developments have led to media speculation about whether Paul might be a force to be reckoned with at the Republican confab in Tampa after all. Whether that will lead to more robust coverage of someone the press long ago discounted as a viable candidate remains to be seen.
[1] In PEJ's analysis, each statement in a story is analyzed as a separate unit of content. Thus a given story may contain positive, negative and neutral coverage or statements.
Romney's Coverage is Mixed, His Rivals Do Worse
April 2-8, 2012 - Even though Mitt Romney moved closer to clinching his party's nomination with wins in Wisconsin, Maryland and the District of Columbia, no presidential candidate fared well in the campaign news narrative last week.
The best Romney could say was the narrative about him in the press was mixed last week, but that was better than his rivals, according to the Campaign 2012 in the Media, a weekly tracking of the tone and volume of coverage of the candidates by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.
Romney's portrayal in the press was also better last week than the one received by the sitting president, Barack Obama, who endured a third consecutive down week after a period of somewhat improved coverage in February and early March.
For the week of April 2-8, 35% of Romney's coverage was positive, 33% was negative and 32% was neutral, according to the weekly tracking, which combines a mix of human and computer algorithmic coding of news content. That represents a downturn from the previous week when 41% of his coverage was positive compared with 29% negative. It also marks Romney's worst week since February 20-26, when he was still reeling from Rick Santorum's wins in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.[1]
Romney easily received the most coverage of any Republican candidate last week, but his mixed narrative seems to reflect a media shift to more of a general election mode now that the press increasingly describes Romney as an inevitable nominee. Some of his negative coverage last week involved accounts of Obama campaign attack ads and polls showing Romney losing to the president in some swing states.
If Romney's week wasn't all he might have hoped, his Republican opponents did markedly worse. Indeed, the tone of coverage for all three of his GOP rivals-Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul-hit a 2012 low point last week. The candidate who Romney would face in November, Barack Obama, also saw his coverage take a distinctly negative turn.
After Santorum lost the crucial Wisconsin primary, and amid speculation he might even exit the race, the tone of his coverage turned more negative last week. Only 19% was positive, with 42% negative and 40% neutral, a differential of 23 percentage points. As recently as late March, the former senator was enjoying substantially positive coverage, but this marks the second straight week when negative assessments dominated. (From March 26-April 1, Santorum's negative coverage exceeded positive by 19 points, although because of an error, that gap was initially reported to be 32 points.)
The volume of Santorum's coverage increased last week. He was a significant figure in 33% of the campaign stories compared with 21% the previous week. Still, he generated only half the attention of Romney, who was a significant figure in 66% of the campaign stories, a slight uptick from 63% the week before. (To be a significant newsmaker, someone must appear in at least 25% of the story.)
PEJ's analysis of the candidates' coverage incorporates software from the firm Crimson Hexagon to use a combination of traditional human content analysis methods and computer monitoring of the tone of press coverage. PEJ also uses human coding to analyze the competition for press attention, or which candidate is generating the most coverage.
Newt Gingrich-who has already downsized his struggling campaign and has not racked up a victory since Georgia on March 6-has virtually fallen out of the story. Last week, he registered as a significant newsmaker in just 1% of campaign stories. And what little there was wasn't flattering. There was a yawning gap between his positive coverage (16%) and negative coverage (47%).
Texas Congressman Ron Paul also received negligible media attention last week. He was a significant newsmaker in only 1% of the week's stories. That marks the third time in the last six weeks that Paul has registered in no more than 1% of the campaign stories.
The tone of Paul's coverage, which had been positive for much of the year, continues to decline as well. Last week, negative assessments (36%) outnumbered positive ones (28%) by eight points.
The shadow in tone about the race wasn't limited to the GOP. The tone of President Obama's coverage hit an 11-week low. From April 2-8, 13% of Obama's coverage was positive, 37% was negative and 50% neutral. After a four week stretch from February 20-March 18 in which his tone was much more mixed, Obama has now endured three straight weeks of substantially negative coverage. Last week, that included everything from stories about rising gas prices to speculation about whether his health care bill will be overturned by the Supreme Court.
[1] In PEJ's analysis, each statement in a story is analyzed as a separate unit of content. Thus a given story may contain positive, negative and neutral coverage or statements.
Coverage of Santorum Turns Negative and Sparse
March 26 - April 1, 2012 - While Mitt Romney's campaign narrative remained positive last week, Rick Santorum endured by far his worst stretch of coverage this year--suggesting the media may be moving closer to discounting him as a possible nominee.
There were no primary contests last week, but Romney appeared to solidify his status as the clear frontrunner with endorsements from party luminaries such as former president George H.W. Bush and Senator Marco Rubio. And his media coverage reflected his frontrunner status as well.
From March 26-April 1, the former Massachusetts governor generated almost three times as much coverage as his closest competitor (Newt Gingrich). And for the second week in a row, his positive coverage exceeded negative by a margin of 41% to 29%, with 30% neutral, according to the Campaign 2012 in the Media, a weekly tracking of the tone and volume of coverage of the candidates by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.[1]
If Romney's endorsements, as well as a growing sense that he will win the April 3 Wisconsin primary, helped fuel his positive coverage, they also contributed to negative assessments about Santorum-who saw a dramatic downturn in his coverage. For the week, 50% of Santorum's coverage was negative compared with 18% positive and 32% neutral. That comes one week after his positive coverage outweighed his negative by 17 percentage points-a 49-point turnaround.
Previous to this, Santorum's most unfavorable week in 2012 was January 16-22, when his negative coverage exceeded positive by 10 points.
Perhaps as tellingly, the amount of attention the media paid to Santorum plunged last week. He was a significant figure in 21% of the week's campaign stories, down from 50% the week before and representing his lowest level of coverage in nine weeks. That compared to 63% for Romney last week. (To register as a significant figure, a candidate must be featured in at least 25% of the story).
The former Pennsylvania senator received less coverage than Newt Gingrich last week. The former House Speaker saw his numbers increase, up to 23% from 14% a week earlier due in large part to his announcement that he was downsizing his already troubled campaign. The tone of his coverage reflected the announcement as well, worsening to 17% positive, 33% negative and 50% neutral. The previous week, his negative coverage had exceeded the positive by nine percentage points.
PEJ's analysis of the candidates' coverage incorporates software from the firm Crimson Hexagon to use a combination of traditional human content analysis methods and computer monitoring of the tone of press coverage. PEJ also uses human coding to analyze the competition for press attention, or which candidate is generating the most coverage.
Ron Paul's narrative was a three-way mix last week-one third positive, one third negative and one third neutral. But whatever the tone of his coverage, the quantity is now so minimal, it may not matter. He has virtually been written out of the campaign story at this point.
For the second week in a row, Barack Obama's negative coverage (32%) outstripped his positive (17%) by 15 percentage points. The president has never enjoyed a week in 2012 when he received more positive than negative attention, but in the four weeks from late February through mid-March, the gap between positive and negative had closed to less than 10 points. Last week, Obama's coverage was affected by the "open mic" incident when he was overheard telling Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that he would have more flexibility to move on bilateral issues after the November election.
[1] In PEJ's analysis, each statement in a story is analyzed as a separate unit of content. Thus a given story may contain positive, negative and neutral coverage or statements.
Two Primaries and a Gaffe Shape Campaign Coverage
March 19-25, 2012 - Another Southern primary win helped lift Rick Santorum to his best week of coverage since mid-February while a high-profile gaffe had an impact on Mitt Romney's narrative.
In a week when Santorum and Mitt Romney shared wins -Romney in Illinois, Santorum in Louisiana-the tone of the media narrative for each was similar and more positive than negative. But the similarity masked a sharp improvement in Santorum's coverage and a significant worsening for Romney, according to the Campaign 2102 in the Media, a weekly tracking of the tone and volume of coverage of the candidates by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.
From March 19-25 Romney outdistanced his rivals in the amount of coverage received, due in part to a widely criticized-and even mocked-remark by a top aide comparing Romney's fall strategy to shaking the slate clean in an Etch A Sketch toy. (It also sparked a boom in Etch A Sketch sales.) But the controversy also affected the tone of his coverage. For the week, 41% of Romney's coverage was positive compared with 29% negative and 30% neutral. That comes on the heels of two weeks when Romney saw his positive coverage outstrip his negative by more than 40 percentage points.
In addition to the criticism surrounding the Etch A Sketch remark, discussion of the mathematical inevitability of a Romney win (part of what accounted for his positive coverage in recent weeks) was less present last week.
Santorum's coverage improved last week to 43% positive, 26% negative and 30% neutral, his best differential (17 points) since February 13-19, following his wins in the Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri contests. In the two weeks from March 5-18, Santorum's coverage was a nearly even mix between positive and negative.
PEJ's analysis of the candidates' coverage incorporates software from the firm Crimson Hexagon to use a combination of traditional human content analysis methods and computer monitoring of the tone of press coverage. PEJ also uses human coding to analyze the competition for press attention, or which candidate is generating the most coverage.
Even as the tone of his coverage worsened last week, Romney widened his lead over his rivals in the competition for coverage. The former Massachusetts governor was a significant presence in 73% of the week's campaign stories, up substantially from 51% the week before. Santorum's coverage also increased-to 50% from 42% the previous week-but did not keep pace with Romney. (To register as a significant presence, a candidate must be featured in at least 25% of a story.)
One candidate who saw his coverage plunge last week was Newt Gingrich. He was a significant presence in just 14% of the stories, compared with 35% the previous week and 36% the week before that. Gingrich finished a disappointing fourth in Illinois and a distant third in Louisiana and as the media and his rivals continued to wonder whether he should exit the race, the tone of his coverage became even less positive. From March 19-25, 21% of his coverage was positive and 30% negative, with 48% neutral.
For Texas Congressman Ron Paul, last week brought an unwelcome milestone. For the first time this year, more of Paul's coverage was negative (28%) than positive (24%) with another 48% neutral. Paul has also been receiving the least coverage of any of the Republican contenders and that didn't change last week as he registered as a significant presence in 3% of the campaign stories.
Barack Obama, who has faced increasing attacks on his energy policy as gas prices have soared, saw a significant downturn in the tone of this coverage last week. Only 15% was positive compared with 30% negative and 55% neutral. While Obama has not had a week this year in which his positive coverage exceeded his negative, in the four previous weeks, the differential between them had been six points or less.
[1] In PEJ's analysis, each statement in a story is analyzed as a separate unit of content. Thus a given story may contain positive, negative and neutral coverage or statements.
Romney's Press Narrative Gets Better and Better
March 12-18, 2012 - Mathematics is beginning to weigh more heavily in press coverage of the presidential campaign.
Though he failed to win in the South last week, Mitt Romney's coverage continued to become more positive last week, aided by the argument that his rivals are running out of time to catch him in the race for delegates, according the Campaign 2102 in the Media, a weekly tracking of the tone and volume of coverage of the candidates by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.
In all, 61% of the coverage of Romney was positive in tone, compared with 17% that was negative, a differential of 44 percentage points, for the week of March 12-18. And 22% of the coverage was neutral.[1] This marked the third straight week of improving coverage for Romney and the second in a row when his positive coverage exceeded negative by more than 40 percentage points.
His week was also significantly better than Rick Santorum's, who won primaries in Alabama and Mississippi on March 13. Many GOP insiders are now publicly skeptical about whether Santorum mathematically can win the nomination, given rules that make the awarding of delegates proportional to the popular vote in primaries. With that as a backdrop in many of the stories about the race, Santorum's coverage-which was more positive than negative for much of February-continued to reflect a more divided narrative last week. In all, 36% of the coverage of his candidacy was positive in tone, while 33% was negative and 30% was neutral-a three point differential toward positive.
PEJ's analysis of the candidates' coverage incorporates software from the firm Crimson Hexagon to use a combination of traditional human content analysis methods and computer monitoring of the tone of press coverage. PEJ also uses human coding to analyze the competition for press attention, or which candidate is generating the most coverage.
Romney, who leads in the delegate count according to CNN by 513 to 239 over Santorum, also enjoyed the most coverage of any candidate last week, though here he had to share more of the spotlight than he had recently. Romney was a significant focus of 51% of the campaign stories studied last week, down from 63% the week before and 68% two weeks earlier. Santorum was the second-most-covered candidate, as he has been since he enjoyed the most coverage the week of February 20-26. He was a significant presence in 42% of stories last week. (To be a significant presence in PEJ's accounting, a candidate must be mentioned in at least 25% of the story.)
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich, thanks in part to the discussion by Santorum and others about whether he should drop from the race, continued to enjoy a resurgence in attention for the second week in a row. Gingrich was a presence in more than a third of campaign stories studied (35%). Two weeks earlier, that number had dropped to 8%.
And coverage of Gingrich continued to be mixed, an improvement in tone that began after his win in Georgia on March 6. In all, 27% of the coverage of Gingrich last week was positive, while 29% was negative and 44% was neutral. For four weeks in February, the narrative about Gingrich was the most negative of any candidate.
And Ron Paul continued to see his coverage, which had been more positive than negative for much of the race, become a little more mixed last week. Fully 31% of Paul's coverage was positive, 24% was negative and 45% was neutral last week. It has become a little less positive for each of the last three weeks. Paul is also now almost absent from the narrative. Last week, he was a significant presence in just 2% of the stories studied. The last time Paul registered as a significant figure in 10% or more of the campaign stories was in early January.
Meanwhile, the amount of positive coverage of Barack Obama dropped moderately last week. Obama's narrative began to improve-or become less negative-starting in early February and became more closely mixed in the last four weeks. Last week, 20% of the coverage of the President was positive, while 25% negative and 55% was neutral. That level of positive coverage was down from 25% a week before, amid conflicting reports about his approval rating and campaign polling.
[1] In PEJ's analysis, each statement in a story is analyzed as a separate unit of content. Thus a given story may contain positive, negative and neutral coverage or statements.
Romney Enjoys a Big Week in the Media
March 5-11, 2012 - Although the voters’ verdict was mixed on Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney proved to be the clear winner of the media narrative that followed.
In a week when Romney finished first in six of ten Super Tuesday contests, 58% of the news coverage about his candidacy was positive and just 16% negative, according to Campaign 2012 in the Media, an ongoing effort to track campaign coverage by the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism. That differential of positive coverage outpacing negative by 42 points was, by far, Romney’s best week of coverage this year.[1] (Another 26% of the coverage was neutral.) Romney’s media narrative has been on the upswing for two weeks.
Rick Santorum, who won three Super Tuesday states and came within an eyelash of Romney in Ohio, had a more mixed news narrative last week. In all, 32% of his news coverage was positive compared with 32% negative and 35% neutral. That marked a downturn from the week before, when Santorum finished close behind Romney in the crucial Michigan primary and had positive coverage (38%) that was moderately higher than his negative coverage (30%).
Romney also dominated in the race for the amount of coverage. He was a significant presence in fully 64% of campaign stories studied by PEJ last week, compared with 44% for Santorum. A week earlier, Santorum was a significant focus of 59% of stories, still behind Romney but much closer. (To be a significant presence, a candidate must be mentioned in at least 25% of the story.)
The numbers also show how changeable the media narrative continues to be. Three weeks earlier, in the aftermath of Santorum’s victories in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado, positive coverage of the former Pennsylvania Senator outweighed negative by 25 percentage points. That same week, Romney’s negative coverage exceeded his positive coverage by 28 percentage points.
PEJ’s analysis of the candidates’ coverage incorporates software from the firm Crimson Hexagon to use a combination of traditional human content analysis methods and computer monitoring of the tone of press coverage. PEJ also uses human coding to analyze the competition for press attention, or which candidate is generating the most coverage.
One candidate who had been disappearing from the narrative also made something of a comeback. Newt Gingrich, who won his home state of Georgia on Super Tuesday, saw a major uptick in the quantity and tone of his coverage last week. Overall, 33% of his coverage was positive compared with 31% negative and 36% neutral—that followed a week when his negative coverage outstripped positive by more than 2-1. Last week also marked the first one when Gingrich’s coverage was more positive than negative (albeit by a very small margin) since January 23-29, after his win in the South Carolina primary. Gingrich was a significant presence in 37% of the campaign stories last week, a more than four-fold increase from the week before (8%).
Texas Congressman Ron Paul’s coverage last week remained in a familiar pattern. It stayed more positive (33%) than negative (23%), but there was little of it. Paul was a significant newsmaker in 6% of the week’s campaign stories, which represents an increase from the week before (1%).
Meanwhile, Barack Obama’s coverage continued its recent trend toward a much more mixed narrative than before. Overall 25% of his coverage was positive compared with 28% negative and 48% neutral. This marks the third week in a row when the president’s negative coverage exceeded positive by only single digits. The president has never had a week in which his positive coverage outstripped the negative, but in recent weeks, he has gotten closer. Still, relatively speaking, last week was the best one for Obama in 2012.
[1] In PEJ's analysis, which involves building computer monitors that replicate the coding done by human researchers, each statement in a story is analyzed as a separate unit of content. Thus a given story may contain positive, negative and neutral coverage or statements.
Romney Enjoys a Surge in Press Leading into Super Tuesday
February 27 - March 4, 2012 - Heading into Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney had his best week of the year in the press.
Fully 45% of the news coverage of Mitt Romney was positive, while 28% was negative-a 17 percentage point differential, according to Campaign 2012 in the Media, an ongoing effort to track campaign coverage by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism. At the same time, 28% of the coverage was neutral for the week of February 27 through March 4, the period in which Romney won the Arizona and closely contested Michigan primaries and seemed to secure again his front-runner status.[1]
Meanwhile, Rick Santorum, who came close but did not beat Romney in Michigan, saw his coverage improve over a week earlier, when he made controversial remarks about the value of college education and criticism of John F. Kennedy's speech during the 1960 presidential campaign about Catholicism and the separation of Church and State. Last week, with those remarks behind him, 38% of the coverage of Santorum was positive while 30% was negative and 32% was 
neutral-a differential of eight points toward the positive.
Last week was first since just after the New Hampshire primary (January 16-22) that Romney enjoyed better treatment in the press than Santorum, according to PEJ's analysis, which incorporates software from the firm Crimson Hexagon to use a combination of traditional human content analysis methods and computer monitoring of the tone of press coverage. PEJ also uses human coding to analyze the chase for attention, or which candidate is generating the most coverage.
February 27 through March 4 also marked one of Romney's biggest weeks of coverage so far. He was a significant presence in 68% of the week's campaign stories, up from 46% the previous week. That is the most attention devoted to him since January 9-15, after his New Hampshire win. Santorum's coverage actually edged up slightly as well last week, to 59% of campaign stories, from 56% the week before, but he did not quite keep pace with Romney. (To register as a significant presence, a candidate must be mentioned in at least 25% of a story.)
For Newt Gingrich, last week's media narrative continued a trend that has seen the quantity of his coverage diminish and the tone remain resolutely negative. Last week, 20% of the former Speaker's coverage was positive compared with 43% negative, a virtual replay of the two previous weeks. Gingrich has not enjoyed a week when positive coverage exceeded negative since January 23-29, after his South Carolina primary win. At the same time, he was a significant newsmaker in only 8% of last week's campaign stories, about half the previous week's total and his lowest since the beginning of November.
Ron Paul continues to enjoy a largely positive portrayal in the media, but that is tempered by the lack of attention to his candidacy. Last week, 36% of his coverage was positive compared with 23% negative, numbers very similar in tone to the previous two weeks. But he was a significant presence in 1% of the campaign stories studied, his lowest level since early November.
For the second week in a row, President Obama's negative coverage exceeded his positive coverage by less than 10 percentage points, the only time that has happened since PEJ began tracking the campaign narrative. From February 27-March 4, 20% of Obama's coverage was positive, 26% was negative and 54% was neutral. Both his positive and negative coverage grew over the previous week (February 20-26) when it was 17% positive, 21% negative and 63% neutral.
[1] In PEJ's analysis, which involves building computer monitors that replicate the coding done by human researchers, each statement in a story is analyzed as a separate unit of content. Thus a given story may contain positive, negative and neutral coverage or statements.
Romney's Storyline Improves, Santorum's Becomes More Mixed on Eve of Arizona and Michigan
February 20 - 26, 2012 - After suffering his worst week yet in the news media two weeks ago, Mitt Romney began to see his narrative sharply improve on the eve of the Arizona and Michigan contests.
At the same time, the media narrative about Rick Santorum-who had enjoyed the two best weeks in the press of any candidate studied so far-became decidedly more mixed heading into Tuesday's contests.
These are among the latest findings of Campaign 2012 in the Media, a real time tracking of the press narrative of the race conducted by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism. The research, which combines traditional human research content analysis methods with algorithmic technology from the firm Crimson Hexagon, tracks the tone and volume of campaign coverage of each candidate across a wide swath of news media sources.
The findings suggest that Santorum's surge, at least in the press narrative, may have ebbed as Romney has fought back.
During the week of Monday February 20th through Sunday the 26th, 26% of the statements about Romney in the press were positive, versus 33% that were negative-a 7 point differential. Meanwhile 41% were neutral. That marks a substantial turnaround for the former Massachusetts governor. A week earlier, the percentage of negative statements about Romney in the coverage outweighed positive 51% to 23%, so that marks a 21-point gain for Romney.
Up until last week, on the other hand, Santorum's coverage had become as positive as Romney's was negative. In the two weeks from February 6 to 19, Santorum enjoyed a 25 point positive differential in his coverage.
Last week Santorum's momentum in the press narrative disappeared: 30% of the coverage of Santorum was positive and 29% negative, with the bulk, 40%, neutral. (In PEJ's coding, the tone of each statement in a story is measured, thus a story can contain percentages of all three kinds of coverage, which provides a more precise sense of the nature of the narrative).
One reason may be that more press attention was focused on Santorum. The former Pennsylvania Senator was a significant presence in 50% of the campaign stories studied last week, tying his high watermark of the campaign so far with the previous week. This also marked the first time Santorum had received more coverage in any week than Romney (who was No. 2 in coverage at 38% of stories). (To be a significant presence, a candidate must be mentioned in at least 25% of the story.)
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich, who rivaled Romney in the level of attention he received in late January, continues to fall steadily out of the coverage. The week of January 23 to 29, Gingrich and Romney both had a significant presence in more than 60% of all campaign stories studied (65% Gingrich and 63% Romney). After his failure to win in Florida, Gingrich began to fall out of the narrative, dropping to 48% of stories. That trend has only accelerated. The week of February 6 to 12, the number fell to 27%. The next week the percentage of campaign stories in which Gingrich was a significant presence fell by almost half, to 14%. Last week Gingrich remained near that level, a presence in 13% of campaign stories.
The tone of Gingrich's coverage has also worsened each week. January 30 through February 5, Gingrich's coverage was essentially mixed. The next week negative statements outnumbered positive by 13 points, then the differential fell to 23 points to the negative. Last week it remained in that range with a 22% negative differential. (In all, 20% of statements about Gingrich were positive last week, 42% were negative and 39% were neutral.)
Ron Paul, meanwhile, continues to enjoy a positive narrative in the press-and it got even better last week. However, given the widespread perception that as a Libertarian with little money behind his campaign he cannot win the nomination, Paul also receives the least attention. Last week Paul enjoyed a 16 point differential between positive (37%) coverage and negative (21%), though he was a presence in just 7% of stories.
President Obama's coverage, by contrast, has improved recently as his poll numbers have risen, though it remains negative overall. Through January, coverage of Obama was significantly more negative than positive-a differential of about 30 points. But starting the first week of February that differential began to narrow to about half that level. Last week, the negative coverage decreased significantly as 17% of the coverage of Obama was positive, while 21% was negative and 63% was neutral-a 4 point differential to the negative. This marks the first time since PEJ began tracking the campaign narrative that the positive coverage for Obama has come within 10 points of his negative coverage.
This Campaign 2012 in the Media report incorporates minor adjustments in PEJ's content coding methodology that make it more responsive to rapid shifts in the media's campaign narrative. To see a full explanation of the changes, including results comparing the revised and the old system, view our full methodology.
Gingrich Begins to Recede in the Press Coverage
January 30 - February 5, 2012 -The media narrative has begun to turn against Newt Gingrich.
After losing soundly to Mitt Romney in Florida and Nevada, the tone of news coverage for Newt Gingrich became decidedly more negative in the last week, according to Campaign 2012 in the Media, the ongoing analysis of the tone and volume of presidential candidate coverage conducted by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.
The week of Monday January 30 through Sunday February 5, a full 41% of the coverage of Gingrich was negative in character, compared with just 24% that was positive. Meanwhile, roughly a third of the coverage (34%) was neutral or simply descriptive. A week earlier, and for the week before that, the tone of news coverage of Gingrich had split evenly between positive and negative treatment of the former Speaker.
Romney, meanwhile, saw a slight uptick in the level of positive coverage of his candidacy last week, though more of his coverage remains negative. In all, last week 29% of the coverage of him was positive, compared with 38% that was negative and 33% that was neutral. A week earlier, in the run-up to his Florida and Nevada wins, 25% of Romney's coverage was positive and 38% was negative.
Romney has also begun to pull away from Gingrich in the amount of coverage he is getting. Last week, 67% of the campaign stories studied focused significantly on Romney (meaning he was featured in at least 25% of the story). By contrast, Gingrich was a significant presence in 48% of stories studied.
For most of the last three weeks, Gingrich was at least as large a presence in the coverage as Romney. Ron Paul (6%) and Rick Santorum (6%) both lagged far behind last week.
These are some of the key findings of the February 6 edition of Campaign 2012 in the Media, which tracks the tone and volume of news coverage about the candidates. The analysis, which features interactives that allow users to explore the data themselves, also includes the tone and volume of discussion on Twitter and incorporates an analysis of other public data, such as new tools about search results, YouTube viewings and press mentions from Google News.
The analysis combines traditional research methods involving human coding with the power of algorithmic analysis using software developed by the company Crimson Hexagon. It includes an analysis of more than 11,000 news websites around the United States and the full public feed of tweets on Twitter. In PEJ's hybrid method, human coders teach the computer to analyze the tone of coverage using PEJ's methods and rules. Researchers then study the examples cited by the algorithmic results to add a qualitative understanding of the narrative.
Romney Surges in Florida Polls, but Faces Tougher Coverage
January 23-29, 2012 - The law of the frontrunner kicked in for Mitt Romney in Florida this past week.
Despite descriptions of him prevailing over Newt Gingrich in the Florida debates and entering Tuesday’s primary with a double digit lead in many pre-primary polls, coverage of Romney has gotten tougher, according to an ongoing analysis of the tone and volume of presidential candidate coverage conducted by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.
During the week from January 23 through January 29 (two days before the Florida primary), a quarter of the coverage of Romney (25%) was positive, while more than a third (38%) was negative, a 13 point differential. Meanwhile, another 37% was neutral or simply descriptive.
One difference for Romney is that more of the coverage of him involves assessments of his candidacy or character than for other candidates.
By contrast, for instance, more of former Speaker Newt Gingrich’s coverage is simply descriptive. One reason might be that Gingrich seems to make himself more accessible, and thus gets more straight coverage of what he says and does. Whatever the reason, the plurality of coverage of Gingrich (44%) is descriptive, while 27% was positive and 29% was negative, despite the assessment in many press accounts that Romney got the better of him in debates and his poll numbers dropped.
The findings suggest the degree to which the coverage of the race is not merely a reflection of polls.
The two top candidates received virtually the same amount of coverage last week. Fully 65% of the campaign stories studied focused significantly on the former House Speaker compared with 63% on Romney. Well back at 6% and 4% respectively were Rick Santorum and Ron Paul.
These are some of the key findings of the January 30 edition of Campaign 2012 in the Media, which tracks the tone and volume of news coverage about the candidates. The analysis, which features interactives that allow users to explore the data themselves, also includes the tone and volume of discussion on Twitter and incorporates an analysis of other public data, such as new tools about search results, YouTube viewings and press mentions from Google News.
The analysis combines traditional research methods involving human coding with the power of algorithmic analysis using software developed by the company Crimson Hexagon. It includes an analysis of more than 11,000 news websites around the United States and the full public feed of tweets on Twitter. In PEJ's hybrid method, human coders teach the computer to analyze the tone of coverage using PEJ's methods and rules. Researchers then study the examples cited by the algorithmic results to add a qualitative understanding of the narrative.
Gingrich and Romney Both Face Mixed Portrayal
Jan. 16-22 2012 -- Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney move toward their confrontation in Florida's primary next Tuesday with portrayals in the news media that are almost equally mixed.
For both candidates, positive news coverage is matched by an almost identical level of negative coverage, according to an ongoing analysis of the tone and volume of presidential candidate coverage conducted by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.
During the week from January 16 through January 22 (the day after the South Carolina primary), the two leading candidates for the Republican nomination also received a similar volume of coverage-and far more than that of any other GOP contenders. This near parity represents a large increase from the week before (January 9-15) in the amount of attention the media is paying to Gingrich.
At the same time, Ron Paul has returned to his status as the candidate with the most positive overall tone in the news media-but also the least amount of coverage. And Rick Santorum is receiving half the level of coverage he did after winning in Iowa, while at the same time his level of negative scrutiny has fallen.
These are some of the key findings of the second installment of Campaign 2012 in the Media, which tracks the tone and volume of news coverage about the candidates. The analysis, which features interactives that allow users to explore the data themselves, also includes the tone and volume of discussion on Twitter and incorporates an analysis of other public data, such as new tools about search results, YouTube viewings and press mentions from Google News.
The analysis combines traditional research methods involving human coding with the power of algorithmic analysis using software developed by the company Crimson Hexagon. It includes an analysis of more than 11,000 news websites around the United States and the full public feed of tweets on Twitter. In PEJ's hybrid method, human coders teach the computer to analyze the tone of coverage using PEJ's methods and rules. Researchers then study the examples cited by the algorithmic results to add a qualitative understanding of the narrative.
During a week in which his surge in the polls was capped off by a big win in the South Carolina primary, Gingrich attracted media coverage that was 44% neutral in tone, 28% positive and 28% negative.
The divided tone of that coverage reflects the array of drama that attached itself to Gingrich's candidacy that week. For instance, on the same day Gingrich received the endorsement of former rival Rick Perry, his ex-wife made a damaging and highly-publicized allegation about the breakup of their marriage. At the same time, Gingrich also saw his poll numbers rise sharply.
A closer look, day by day, also shows that coverage of Gingrich did not particularly improve in the days leading into the South Carolina primary. Only on Sunday, after his victory, was the coverage more positive than negative, and a scan of the headlines showed a fairly unanimous media assessment. "Gingrich upends GOP: Surges to Big Victory on two strong debates, doubts about Romney" read the headline in the Houston Chronicle. The Washington Post also used the phrase "Gingrich Upends Race?" The New York Times headline said "Upset by Gingrich Shifts G.O.P. Campaign."
For his part, Romney has become the candidate whose portrayal in the press is the most mediated-that is, the most likely to involve some kind of assessment or interpretation, be it positive or negative. In all, 32% of the coverage about Romney in the last week was neutral, while 33% was positive and 35% negative. For all other candidates the level of neutral coverage represents either a plurality or majority of all coverage.
The other striking finding from the analysis of last week's campaign coverage is how much more of it is now focused on Gingrich. The percentage of campaign stories in which Gingrich was a significant figure more than doubled-from 25% during the week of January 9 through 15, 57% from January 16 to 22, according to the sample that the Project uses to track volume. (To track volume, PEJ monitors 52 major news outlets selected to represent a cross section of media based on audience, and identifies those stories in which a candidate is a presence in at least 25% of the story.)
PEJ's findings about candidate coverage are mirrored in data from Google. The internet company tracks how many times a candidate is mentioned in any story tracked by Google News, how many searches there are about each candidate in the Google Search Engine and how many downloads of each candidate received on his YouTube channel. Those results also show that Gingrich is now the candidate whose videos are most downloaded and the candidate whose name is being searched most often.
And while Romney is still a major focus for the press, he is no longer in a league by himself. Last week, Romney was a significant figure in 53% of campaign stories studied, down from 69% following his victory in New Hampshire, and slightly less than the 57% share accorded last week to Gingrich.
The Bain Capital Story Hurts Romney and His Critics
Jan. 9-15 2012 -- After winning the first two nominating contests, Mitt Romney is getting more negative news coverage heading into Saturday's South Carolina primary than he has at any time so far in the GOP race, according to the first edition of an ongoing analysis of election news by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism called Campaign 2012 in the Media.
Meanwhile, Ron Paul, the Libertarian described in many press accounts as having little chance of winning the nomination, is enjoying the most positive coverage of any candidate. And while the level of coverage he is receiving does not compare to Romney's, he is no longer the least-covered contender.
INTERACTIVE: Explore the data
And Rick Santorum received virtually no boost from nearly winning in Iowa on January 3. His coverage was actually much better the two weeks before the caucuses. Since then, he has received a divided narrative in the press. The bigger change for Santorum is that after he finished fifth in New Hampshire, the level of coverage of him plummeted.
In the last week, a close look at the coverage also shows not only that Romney's years at the helm of the private equity firm Bain Capital was a central theme of the campaign dialogue, but that the topic seemed to adversely affect almost everyone who talked about it-not just Romney but his critics as well.
These are some of the findings of what will be an ongoing analysis by the Project for Excellence in Journalism, which will track the tone and volume of news coverage about the candidates throughout the election year. The analysis, which features interactives that allow users to explore the data themselves, also includes the tone and volume of discussion on Twitter and incorporates an analysis of other public data, such as new tools about search results, YouTube viewings and press mentions from Google News.
The analysis combines traditional research methods involving human coding with the power of algorithmic analysis using software developed by the company Crimson Hexagon. It includes an analysis of more than 11,000 news websites around the United States and the full public feed of tweets on Twitter. In PEJ's hybrid method, human coders teach the computer to analyze the tone of coverage using PEJ's methods and rules. Researchers then study the examples cited by the algorithmic results to add a qualitative understanding of the narrative.
This first report covers from Monday January 9, the day before the New Hampshire primary, through Sunday January 15, and compares that to the coverage each week beginning in July 2011.
The findings suggest that while polls and horse race set a context for the way media portray the race, the narrative itself is dominated by the daily back and forth of the campaign dialogue. Thus while it may seem counterintuitive that Romney has a bad week after cementing his frontrunner status in New Hampshire, the coverage also reflects the intensifying attempts to blunt that momentum. And last week that centered on a debate over his career in private equity.
As for the other contenders, coverage of Newt Gingrich heading into South Carolina is becoming more neutral, even as negative coverage still outweighs positive. And Rick Perry is enduring the most challenging portrayal of all in the press-negative coverage of him outweighs positive by roughly two-to-one.
After emerging from New Hampshire as a clear front runner, Romney saw his coverage become more negative as opponents trained their ads and rhetoric more pointedly to stop him, particularly targeting his career at Bain Capital. The percentage of positive coverage about Romney actually rose slightly from the week before (it was 30% up from 25%). But the level of negative coverage jumped to the point that 41% of all the statements in the press about him last week were negative (up from 26%). The smallest percentage of the coverage of Romney was neutral, the only candidate for whom that was true. (In the data, tone of coverage is measured not by story but by the statements about a candidate and tracks how many are positive, negative or neutral in tone across stories.)
Romney also dominated the coverage last week. He was a significant presence in more than two-thirds of the campaign stories studied by PEJ. (To register as a significant newsmaker, someone must be included in at least 25% of a story.) The closest competitor to that in the race for exposure was Gingrich, who figured in 25% of the stories studied.
Romney also surged past Santorum and rivals by other measures of media and public interest. In the last week, he passed Santorum as the candidate most searched on Google. (Santorum was the candidate who piqued the most curiosity after Iowa). He also passed Ron Paul as the candidate whose YouTube channels enjoyed the most views. And he continued, as he has been for some weeks, as the GOP candidate receiving the most mentions in stories tracked by Google News, which mirrors the results from PEJ's methodology, which tracks a set number of news outlets and identifies the number of stories in which a candidate is the subject of at least 25 percent of the story.
One reason for this heavy level of attention and curiosity may have been that the Bain controversy drove a good deal of the campaign discourse about Romney during the week, and drove up the number of statements about him in the coverage that were negative.
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution story from Friday January 13, for instance, reported that the Obama campaign had joined the criticism by describing Romney's economic record as "profit at any cost" and accusing his private equity firm of "destroying companies and good-paying jobs in order to reap huge profits."
For Gingrich, who had been an aggressive critic of Romney's private sector record, negative coverage outweighed positive 27% to 20% last week. The majority of coverage (52%) was neutral. He was the target of some backlash among conservative pundits, including Rush Limbaugh, who saw his assault on Romney as an attack on free market capitalism.
And that persisted into the weekend. On Saturday, for instance, a January 14 Reuters story showing Romney opening a big lead in South Carolina, reported that "senior Republican figures and business executives have berated Gingrich for painting multi-millionaire Romney as a ruthless corporate raider."
Perry suffered some of the same fate as Gingrich but his negative portrayal in the press was a combination of questions about his attacks and doubts about the viability of his candidacy. An AP story, for instance, noted how a top Perry fundraiser jumped ship to Romney last week out of anger at the anti-Bain rhetoric. For the week, 37% of the coverage about him was negative while 19% was positive.
In the past few weeks, Santorum has found that both his strong showing in Iowa and his weak finish New Hampshire appeared to have little impact on a forward-looking media narrative.
The week after he almost won Iowa, the press narrative about Santorum was full of skepticism about whether he could sustain the momentum and new scrutiny of his record, stories that were probably assigned as he surged in the polls before Iowa. For that week, 27% of the coverage was positive, 24% negative and 49% neutral. Last week, after failing to break into double digits in New Hampshire, his press narrative looked much as it did as after Iowa, (28% positive, 25% negative and 47% neutral).
His narrative last week was somewhat buoyed by the hope, expressed in a Wall Street Journal story, that he "has a better shot at claiming the mantle of the true conservative in the [South Carolina] race because of his record on social issues as well as fiscal ones." It also benefited from the endorsement of evangelical leaders who met in Texas over the weekend. But perhaps just as telling is that level of coverage of Santorum has dropped off markedly. The week after Iowa, Santorum was a significant presence in 41% of campaign stories studied. Last week that number had fallen to 9%.
After months in which he was better known for not being covered, Ron Paul can claim being ignored no longer. He was the third most covered candidate after Romney and Gingrich, a significant presence in 15% of the stories studied.
But he enjoyed his widest differential between positive (45%) and negative coverage (12%) of any candidate last week. And it was his best week by that metric since the campaign began, dating back in this analysis to July.
A close look at the coverage suggests that both his solidity in the polls and the passion of his crowds are factors in that positive narrative.
"Ron Paul's Libertarian philosophy is resonating with voters and senior Republicans say the party needs to show respect for him and grant some concessions to make sure he does not run as a third party candidate," declared a Reuters story last week. In a way, Paul appears to enjoy the best of both worlds-a press corps crediting the appeal of his candidacy while eschewing the sustained scrutiny that a viable candidate for the nomination inevitably attracts.
Another candidate who never received that kind of media vetting was Jon Huntsman who withdrew on January 16 after finishing a somewhat disappointing third in New Hampshire, a state he had staked much of his candidacy. The final week of his candidacy, 19% of the coverage of Huntsman was positive, 23% negative and 58% neutral. That ended a streak of 19 consecutive weeks when his positive coverage exceeded negative, often by small margins, though the level of attention was generally throughout that time modest.
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