Not long ago traditional “terrestrial” radio occupied a unique and seemingly unshakable position among media. It had the portability of a magazine or a newspaper and the content variety of television and cost nothing to use beyond the cost of a receiver. As broadcast television struggled to keep its audience from fleeing to cable and later satellite, radio remained stable. Technology certainly offered alternatives — portable tape and CD players — but they were clunky and lacked the scope and flexibility of old-fashioned radio.
By 2005 that had begun to change dramatically. Seemingly overnight, satellite radio, Internet-only stations, podcasts, MP3s and iPods were changing the way America and the world listened. And all of it was quickly getting portable. A listener could carry around everything from an entire home CD collection to a radio show downloaded last night, and the new audio programmers were capturing and creating content limited only by the scope of imagination — from blues of the 1920s to dance club music like “deep house” to long-form informational content like audio documentaries.
So what impact is all this having on audiences?
By traditional measures, the figures for the reach of radio continue to hold a stubborn line. According to data in the most recent edition (2004) of Arbitron’s annual Radio Today report, 94% of people 12 years old and older still listen to traditional radio weekly. That is a drop of just one percentage point since 1998. Compared to some media, such as newspapers or network news, that is not only a remarkable percentage of the population but a remarkably consistent performance.1 [1]
That number may soon be shifting, however, and not necessarily because of listeners leaving traditional radio for the new audio, but because of changes in how radio listenership is measured.
Radio Reach |
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Percent of the population 12 and older, 1998 - 2004 |
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Source: Arbitron, “Radio Today: How America Listens to Radio, 2005 Edition,” December 22, 2004
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Traditional radio research is based on personal diaries and surveys, but there are growing questions about the reliability of those methods. The questions have become even more critical as traditional radio begins to compete with elements of the new audio (Internet radio stations, MP3 downloads) that record detailed information about listener use.
Already, one “observational” study by academic researchers at Ball State University has found that 73% of those observed listened daily to terrestrial radio. The study, involving 394 adults from Indianapolis and Muncie, Ind., who were observed during the course of the day, found that they listened to the radio for an average of 80 minutes a day, and more in the car than at home or work.2 [3]
The current Arbitron data are also not as detailed as the audience data for new audio, which offer advertisers hard numbers on exactly who is listening or, at the very least, who paid in advance to listen. In an effort to develop such concrete data regarding traditional radio audiences, a company called Navigauge created an in-car measurement system that automatically collects data on listener habits. Its device, wired up to the car’s audio system, date- and time-stamps dial changes and tracks vehicle position to provide a detailed record.
But some critics argued that the technology relied too heavily on the perception that radio listening is largely confined to the car. Arbitron tried to solve that problem by creating a wearable device, the Portable People Meter. Launched in the U.S. with a small-scale test in Philadelphia in 2002, the meter, often referred to as a PPM, automatically logs the wearer’s media consumption. Tracking is initiated when the PPM detects an audio signal, thereby eliminating potential human errors. The single device can also track terrestrial or satellite radio use in the car, online or through a traditional radio receiver.
Early reported results from the Arbitron PPM trials in Philadelphia and a later test in the Houston market showed that while listeners were listening more often and to more stations than the old diary system revealed, they spent less time actually listening. Bob Papper, a Ball State professor of telecommunications, notes that the findings closely resembled those of the personal observation studies conducted as part of The Middletown Media Studies.3 [4]
Still apparently unsatisfied, Clear Channel Communications released an RFP (Request For Proposals) in July 2005 for the design of a “state of the art audience measurement system.”4 [5]
In whatever form of measurement emerges, advertisers and others are likely to demand more information about who listens and when, and the economics of radio advertising and subscriptions could be reshaped.
For now, that hasn’t occurred. The data available suggest that users may not yet be replacing the old with the new as much as adding it to the mix, the way they did when the FM band was added.
In a survey conducted by Arbitron and Edison Media Research, 82% of Americans surveyed said that even with all the new audio technologies, they planned to listen to traditional radio as much in the future as they did now. That included 70% of 12-to-17 year olds, even though that age group is most likely to consider an iPod or MP3 player a staple of their daily lives.5 [6]
The patterns may change in time. Fully 30% in the survey by Arbitron and Edison Media believed that a time would come when there would be no traditional, commercial radio stations because all audio content would come from online or satellite radio providers. Some 62% thought that would never be the case.6 [7]
For now, other research seems to support Arbitron’s current findings. According to a study on audience attrition conducted by Bridge Ratings & Research, the audience for traditional radio , while appearing to decline in the last half of 2004, had leveled off. In fact, with listeners 35 to 64 years old, listening to traditional radio had increased almost back to its previous level.7 [8]
The age group with the most significant amount of attrition, however, was the young — 12-to-24-year-olds. The average amount of time they spent listening to traditional radio dropped from 15.5 hours a week to 13.25.8 [9]