Online Audience - 2006 Annual Report

How much growth in online news consumption can we expect to see in 2006 and beyond? Projecting online news use is necessarily speculative. Still, most observers do see growth continuing, though more slowly now than before. Jupiter Research, one of the key forecasters of online economics and audience figures, predicts that by 2010, overall Internet penetration will reach 74%, up from 68% in 2005, or roughly a 1 % increase each year over the next four years. While this suggests more of a “maturation phase” than explosive growth, it still signifies growth.9 And the evidence suggests that as overall Internet use grows, so will using the Internet for news.

Analysts cite three factors in predicting continued growth, two of which could increase not only the number of people who use the Internet but how much they do so:

1. U.S. teenagers
2. Racial and ethnic groups
3. Broadband

Teenagers and Growth

Much of the existing survey research generally excludes those younger than 18 years of age, or the so-called “digital natives” in the words of Rupert Murdoch.10 Research from the Pew Internet and American Life Project show that nearly 9 in 10 teenagers (87%) are Internet users, compared to almost 7 in 10 (68%) adults.11

Moreover, teenagers are slightly more likely than adults to access news online, and their use is growing. In 2005, 76% of teens got news online — up from 38% in 2000, and six percentage points greater than those over 18, according to the Pew Internet and American Life Project. As the teenagers enter the general U.S. adult pool that pollsters usually draw from, overall online use should grow.

Ethnicity and Growth

There is also projected growth among several racial and ethnic groups, although those estimates are for overall Internet use and not exclusively news. Jupiter Research, for instance, estimates that African-American household penetration will grow from 56% to 64% from 2004 to 2010; Hispanic penetration from 52% to 64%, and Asian-American from 71% to 83%.12

Broadband and Growth

Finally, there is the question of how the expansion of broadband connections will affect news. “Broadband” is a term for high-speed Internet and data connections. More and more Americans are moving to this faster connection mode. And research suggests broadband users are more likely than dial-up users to perform a number of online activities, including consuming news. What’s more, there is a strong possibility that the availability and ease of accessing video news clips and stories over broadband connections will prompt further growth in online news consumption; growing numbers of news organizations are offering the video feature. There is also a possibility that as more private citizens contribute news content, either on formal news sites or on amateur sites and blogs, the menu of news will expand and attract new markets. Thus any increase in broadband adoption would logically include an increase in online news use as well.